Investment Clock insights

Growth in business investment shrugs off Brexit vote


Ian Kernohan, Senior Economist

29 September 2017

The latest National Accounts data showed that UK GDP increased by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year, unrevised from the previous estimate. 

Growth in consumer spending slowed to just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and was revised downwards for the second half of 2016. By contrast, growth in business investment was revised up in 2016, while the estimate for growth in business investment for the second quarter of 2017 was also revised up to 0.5%, suggesting no major impact from the Brexit vote. 

The Bank of England will be keen to see the first estimate for GDP in the third quarter, that’s due next month, and a majority of the members of its Monetary Policy Committee have already signalled that if the economy continues to follow its current path of a continued erosion of slack, then a rate hike is likely over the coming months. Unless the economic data shows signs of renewed weakness during October, we expect an interest rate rise in November.

 

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not constitute investment advice.