Investment Clock insights

Brexit impacts being felt more strongly


Melanie Baker

5 December 2018

November’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) business surveys painted a very subdued picture of the UK economy.  Markit, who compile the data, estimate that the data is consistent with GDP growth of only 0.1%Q in Q4.  After the services PMI fell nearly 2 points in November, the composite indicator recorded only 50.7 (consensus: 52.1, previous: 52.1). That’s the worst recording since the post-referendum dip in July 2016.
Respondents to the services survey flagged subdued business and consumer spending.  There are several references to the impact of Brexit uncertainty in the press release.
Silver linings:  To the extent that this is Brexit related, this should prove a temporary dip in activity - assuming that we don’t end up with a no deal Brexit  in March 2019, and assuming we get a bit more uncertainty on the Brexit outcome in coming months... 

November’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) business surveys painted a very subdued picture of the UK economy.  Markit, who compile the data, estimate that the data is consistent with GDP growth of only 0.1%Q in Q4.  After the services PMI fell nearly 2 points in November, the composite indicator recorded only 50.7 (consensus: 52.1, previous: 52.1). That’s the worst recording since the post-referendum dip in July 2016.

Respondents to the services survey flagged subdued business and consumer spending.  There are several references to the impact of Brexit uncertainty in the press release.

Silver linings:  To the extent that this is Brexit related, this should prove a temporary dip in activity - assuming that we don’t end up with a no deal Brexit  in March 2019, and assuming we get a bit more uncertainty on the Brexit outcome in coming months... 

Past performance is no guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The views expressed are the author’s own and do not constitute investment advice.