Blog

Blog


Trevor Greetham, Ian Kernohan, Nersen Pillay and Hiroki Hashimoto offer their latest views on investment market conditions.

Chancellor's love bomb to first time buyers

Ian Kernohan 

22 November 2017

The shape of Brexit is still the key determinant of the medium-term economic outlook, and further clarity on the UK's new trading arrangements will be more important than anything................Read more

Plus ça change at the Fed

Ian Kernohan

16 November 2017

This year has seen the strongest period of global GDP growth since the financial crisis. There has been a recovery in global investment growth, which may be early indicator that the global equilibrium................Read more

Fall in employment rate will raise eyebrows

Ian Kernohan

15 November 2017

This morning’s data was a little on the soft side, with the first fall in total employment for a year.  Although the employment rate only fell very slightly, this will raise some eyebrows.  There were 1.42 million unemployed people................Read more

Carney's inflation letter has been avoided

Ian Kernohan 

14 November 2017

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was 3.0% in October, just below the Bank of England’s expectations and avoiding the need for Mr. Carney to................Read more

One down, more to come?

Ian Kernohan 

2 November 2017

For the first time since July 2007, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.5%. The move was widely expected, as was a split vote, so markets were most interested................Read more

Further rate hikes depend on Brexit

Trevor Greetham

2 November 2017

It's not often you can say that interest rates doubled today. Rate hikes are never popular with borrowers, but with base rates at only 0.5% and inflation at 3% there will be little pushback. We expect the................Read more 

Rates could slowly rise after today's hike

Ian Kernohan

2 November 2017

In a boost for savers, the Bank of England has raised interest rates for the first time in over a decade.  A hike was expected, as was a split in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote, so the market was................Read more

Services help lift UK GDP

Ian Kernohan

25 October 2017

GDP grew by 0.4% in Q2, a slightly higher rate than seen in the first half of the year. The large services sector was the main contributor to growth, with strong performances in computer programming................Read more

Shinzo Abe wins big victory in Japan's election

Hiroki Hashimoto

23 October 2017

Unlike May's gamble, Abe gets the mandate he wanted and sets himself up to become Japan’s longest serving PM. However, perhaps the biggest surprise of the night was the poor................Read more

3% inflation won't have come as a surprise to the BoE

Ian Kernohan

17 October 2017

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.0% in September, on the cusp of letter writing territory.  While this is higher than expected in the August Inflation Report, the Bank of England’s................Read more 

Sterling rallies but we're not convinced

Hiroki Hashimoto

16 October 2017

Sterling has been one of the best performing developed currencies last week, as Prime Minister May survived the attempted leadership coup and some reports suggesting that EU Brexit negotiator Barnier................Read more

Japan's stock market has further to run

Trevor Greetham, Head of Multi Asset

11 October 2017

Japan's stock market has hit a two decade high but we think it has further to run. The economy is picking up, corporate profits are being upgraded and the central bank is on the side of equity holders................Read more

Could a base rate hike hurt the pound?

Trevor Greetham, Head of Multi Asset

10 October 2017

While US interest rate expectations have been firming up, the recent weakness in the pound has been far larger than can be explained by interest rate differentials between the UK and US alone.................Read more

Old £1 coins could be the least of your worries

Nersen Pillay, Investment Director

6 October 2017

Some estimates suggest more than £1bn could be lost when the £1 coin goes out of circulation on October 15th, meaning it’s never been so important to check your old piggy banks and down the back of the sofa.................Read more

Growth in business investment shrugs off Brexit vote

Ian Kernohan, Senior Economist

29 September 2017

The latest National Accounts data showed that UK GDP increased by 0.3% in the second quarter of the year, unrevised from the previous estimate.................Read more

GMAP asset allocation: where we stand

Nersen Pillay, Investment Director

27 September 2017

Multi asset: overweight equities and high yield; underweight bonds We have been overweight equities since 2012 given the environment of continued global recovery and loose interest rate policy. We added to stocks in August...........Read more 

Bull markets don't die of old age

Trevor Greetham, Head of Multi Asset

27 September 2017

Stock prices have been rising for more than eight years but bull markets don’t die of old age. There are few signs of the excessive growth, excessive valuation or excessive financial leverage that usually...........Read more 

Taking some profit on our recent equity purchase

Hiroki Hashimoto, Senior Quantitative Analyst

26 September 2017

We added to our overweight position in stocks in our multi asset funds last month when increased political tensions between the US and North Korea caused a dip in global markets. Our investor sentiment indicator...........Read more 

Time has come for ECB to roll back pace of asset purchases

Ian Kernohan

7 September 2017

It is now less than four months until the current phase of the ECB asset purchase programme ends. The ECB was not expected to signal a reduction in quantitative easing at this meeting, but to leave the door open...........Read more

Buying the dip in equities

Trevor Greetham

22 August 2017

After months of calm, investors are starting to get rattled by geopolitical events, with the stand-off with North Korea and protests in the US causing disquiet. As a result, our contrarian sentiment indicator.................Read more

CPI close to topping out

Ian Kernohan

15 August 2017

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 2.6% in July, still above target, but down from its recent peak.  The price of fuel was the largest downward contributor, offset by smaller upward contributions from.................Read more 

Brexit uncertainty and low wage growth will keep rates on hold

Ian Kernohan

3 August 2017

As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold, although there was some market nervousness about how many members would decide to vote in favour of a hike.  Given the recent run of economic data, the BoE have had to downgrade.................Read more 

Investor sentiment turning euphoric

Hiroki Hashimoto 

31 July 2017

Our investor sentiment moved into the euphoric territory for the first time since the peak of the ‘Trumpflation’ excitement at the start of the year. While investor sentiment started to dip in March as the chances................Read more

Is de-risking risky?

Nersen Pillay

28 July 2017

The orthodoxy has been that younger savers should take more risk (e.g. hold more equities) but as people near retirement, they should play safe and have bonds and cash to preserve their capital.  There is................Read more

Swiss franc not strengthening despite the weak dollar environment

Hiroki Hashimoto

27 July 2017

Today’s headlines centred around the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision and the subsequent market reaction in currency markets. Despite the outcome being broadly in-line with most................Read more

Rising services activity offsets manufacturing weakness

Ian Kernohan

26 July 2017

UK GDP grew at 0.3% quarter on quarter during the second quarter of the year. The rising activity in the services sector has offset weakness in................Read more

ISM v PMI

Ian Kernohan

20 July 2017

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing series has long been used to track trends in the US manufacturing sector. The series stretches back to 1950 and has assumed................Read more 

An extended cycle

Ian Kernohan

20 July 2017

A shift in the relationship between unemployment and wages is helping to keep inflation low. Economic upswings do not die of old age, so with inflationary pressures still muted, we................Read more

Is strong Chinese growth good news or bad news?

Hiroki Hashimoto

18 July 2017

The upswing in the Chinese economy since 2015 has provided much of the impetus for the strong performance of stock markets around the world so we should pay close attention to where China is heading................Read more 

Some good news on inflation!

Ian Kernohan

18 July 2017

In some good news on inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.6% in June, still above the Bank of England’s (BoE's) target but down from its recent peak, with the fall in fuel prices the major................Read more

How can the Investment Clock go backwards?

Nersen Pillay

14 July 2017

Our active asset allocation process aims to maximise exposure to assets which do best in different parts of the economic cycle and minimise exposure to those which do worst................Read more

The Bank of Canada hikes rates for the first time since 2010

Hiroki Hashimoto

13 July 2017

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate to 0.75% from 0.50% for the first time since 2010, becoming the second central bank in the developed economy to hike in the current cycle................Read more

Wage growth still too tepid for Bank of England rate setters

Ian Kernohan

12 July 2017

In many ways this was another strong labour market report, with the employment rate at a record high and the unemployment rate  falling to 4.5%, the lowest since 1975................Read more

Fade sterling strength 

Ian Kernohan

29 June 2017

Over the past 12 months sterling has traded mainly on Brexit developments: depreciating sharply on the shock referendum result, falling further in the autumn when the government appeared................Read more

Another hawk unmasked

Ian Kernohan

21 June 2017

Having thought there were only two hawks left on the Monetary Policy Committee, it is now clear that there are three.  Andy Haldane considered a rate rise in June, but decided to wait. He clearly considers................Read more

Raising inflation targets is not an easy answer

Ian Kernohan

20 June 2017

With inflationary pressures still so low almost a decade after the Great Recession, thoughts have turned again to raising inflation targets, as a way of helping monetary policy give an extra push to the economy, allowing it to break out of its................Read more

Market impact of a hung parliament depends on Brexit policy

Trevor Greetham

14 June 2017

For the second time in the last three General Elections the British public has in effect voted for ‘none of the above’. Neither the Conservatives nor the Labour Party can command a majority in the House of Commons...............Read more

Further rate hikes to be expected in the U.S.

Ian Kernohan

14 June 2017

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) made little changes in the language or projections for further interest rate hikes. They acknowledged that inflation was running below target, but also that job gains..........Read more

Some good news but earnings squeeze goes on

Ian Kernohan

14 June 2017

With inflation now close to 3%, real earnings growth has slipped into negative territory. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will need to see a distinct improvement in earnings growth if their..........Read more

Pros and cons for markets of a weak and unstable UK government

Trevor Greetham

9 June 2017

In one of the biggest electoral shocks since the 1970s, Theresa May’s Conservative party has emerged as the largest party in the next parliament but has lost its majority after an unexpectedly strong..........Read more

Despite US GDP revisions the Fed has already made up its mind

Ian Kernohan

26 May 2017

US GDP growth for the first quarter of the year was revised up to 1.2% on an annualised basis, which despite the revision is still very soft growth...........Read more

Lower for longer lives on

Ian Kernohan 

26 May 2017

Global growth has been more buoyant than for some time, however as we move into the second half of the year, markets will turn their attention to the outlook for 2018. With inflationary pressures...........Read more

Trump budget proposals re-iterate GDP growth target

Ian Kernohan

24 May 2017

In the immediate aftermath of the Trump election victory last November, there was much anticipation of a major fiscal stimulus.  While the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans differed over the mix of tax...........Read more

China and Trump could deliver another volatile summer for markets

Trevor Greetham 

22 May 2017

We could see a pickup in volatility this summer with the economic upswing starting to cool off and geopolitical risks running high. But eight years on from the Great Recession, there.............Read more

Ready to buy summer dips

Trevor Greetham 

19 May 2017

The upswing in global growth is coming off the boil and inflation pressures are easing. This is good for bonds but stocks may not take bad news kindly and we have taken profits. We don’t think the.............Read more

Wage growth still the economy's missing ingredient

Ian Kernohan

17 May 2017

In many ways today's was another strong labour market report, with the employment rate at a record high and the unemployment rate falling to 4.6%, the lowest since 1975.............Read more

Air fares boost inflation as real wage growth squeezed

Ian Kernohan

15 May 2017

As expected, CPI rose in April to 2.7% , with rising air fares a major contributor thanks to the later date of Easter this year.............Read more

Bank stays pat after weaker data

Ian Kernohan

11 May 2017

Since the last Inflation Report, GDP data has been softer than the MPC expected, while the recent recovery in sterling has helped to limit upside inflation risk.  In their latest Report, the MPC have not altered their signal..............Read more

Markets keep calm and 'march on' after Macron victory

Trevor Greetham

8 May 2017

Victory for Emmanuel Macron in the French presidential election has been greeted with satisfaction, rather than euphoria by financial markets, with the euro holding on to recent gains and stock..............Read more

Don't pop the champagne corks just yet, despite French election rally

Trevor Greetham

24 April 2017

The main worry for investors and traders watching the French election was that voters would be presented with a choice between anti-EU candidates on the left and right  in the second round..............Read more

Sterling soars on election news

Trevor Greetham

18 April 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May has called a general election on 8 June to seek a direct mandate to take the country through the Brexit process. Sterling initially dipped when a surprise statement was..............Read more

Labour market data highlights consumer squeeze

Ian Kernohan

12 April 2017

The latest UK labour market report shows that employment continues to rise, while unemployment has fallen again.  The unemployment rate is sitting at 4.7%, down from 5.1% a year..............Read more

Rising inflation takes a breather

Ian Kernohan

11 April 2017

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was flat in March at 2.3%, unchanged from February.  The later date of Easter this year will have held back prices in March, thanks to the lower air fares. However, while the impact..............Read more

Geopolitical impact on markets

Trevor Greetham

10 April 2017

In the first geopolitical flashpoint of the Trump presidency, American warships have fired sixty cruise missiles at the Syrian airbase thought to have launched the recent chemical weapons attack. Although..............Read more

Mixed payrolls, but Fed still on track to hike

Ian Kernohan

7 April 2017

There was something for everyone in the latest US Labour Market Report. On the one hand, the three month moving average for payrolls slipped to 180,000 from 200,000 last month, while on the other..............Read more

Post-referendum improvement in UK current account

Ian Kernohan

3 April 2017

The large drop in the UK’s  current account deficit to 2.4% in Q4 2016 (see chart) was driven by an improvement in the trade balance, and the primary income balance.  With sterling significantly lower..............Read more

Fed delivers dovish hike

Ian Kernohan 

24 March 2017

Higher US interest rates need not always be a barrier to equity markets. Much depends on how well the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have signalled their intentions, why they are raising rates, and how..............Read more

Dovish Fed means no repeat of 94

Ian Kernohan 

22 March 2017

Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lifted rates for only the third time in this current policy cycle. The decision came as a reaction to better economic data, in particular strong labour market data..............Read more

No surprises from Bank of England, despite dissent from hawish Forbes

Ian Kernohan

16 March 2017

As expected, the Bank of England have left policy unchanged. GDP growth in the first quarter looks to have been close to their forecast, with some signs of a slowdown in household spending..............Read more

Monthly labour market report shows UK unemployment rate lowest since 1975

Ian Kernohan

15 March 2017

Aside from the weakness in pay growth, this was a robust set of numbers: the number of people in work increased, and the unemployment total has fallen by 106,000 over the past..............Read more

Improvement in public finances down to one off factors

Ian Kernohan

8 March 2017

The UK economy has been much more resilient than expected in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The Office for Budget Responsibility has recognised this by revising up..............Read more 

One of the longest rallies in 25 years likely to continue

Trevor Greetham

28 February 2017

RLAM’s investor sentiment indicator (chart 1) has moved further into euphoric territory as US equity markets made new all-time highs, ahead of President Trump’s much-awaited keynote speech to both.............Read more

Will Trumpflation trump protectionism?

Ian Kernohan

23 February 2017

The major market surprise of recent months is that the election of Donald Trump as US President has acted as a positive catalyst for risk appetites. Global economic data has also shown good signs.............Read more

UK growth driven by weak sterling and strong trade

Ian Kernohan

22 February 2017

Far from slowing down after the vote to leave the EU, GDP growth actually picked up in the second half of the year. However, there were some signs that Brexit uncertainty is starting to have some.............Read more

Expect real income squeeze despite record employment rates

Ian Kernohan

15 February 2017

The latest Labour Market Report showed no change in the rate of unemployment, which remained at 4.8%, while the employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who are in work) was the highest.............Read more

Inflation rises, but expect no bank action until 2019

Ian Kernohan

14 February 2017

UK inflation, as measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 1.8% in January. This rate was still below target, but was the highest inflation figure since June 2014, driven by rising fuel prices and a gradual end.............Read more

Trump shocks, but stick with stocks

Trevor Greetham

7 February 2017

The unpredictable nature of a Trump administration creates uncertainty, especially if protectionist rhetoric starts to outweigh promises of stimulus. However, global growth is picking up and monetary.............Read more

Rock around The Investment Clock 

Trevor Greetham

6 February 2017

In an interview with Martin Bamford at Informed Choice Radio, Trevor discusses his investment clock model along with topical issues including Brexit, Trump and various other factors for investors to consider.............Read more

Employment figures show good start to the year for US economy

Ian Kernohan

3 February 2017

The latest payroll numbers suggest that the US economy had a solid start to the year. Employment rose by 227,000 in January, with the unemployment rate showing a small increase to.............Read more

Near term UK interest rate hikes unlikely despite robust growth

Ian Kernohan & Trevor Greetham

Following the relatively robust GDP report for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bank of England has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year by more than I expected, but made little change to their inflation.............Read more 

Macro backdrop to Trump politics

Trevor Greetham

1 February 2017

Political risk will be a feature of 2017 as it was in 2016. The unpredictable nature of a Trump administration creates uncertainty, especially if protectionist rhetoric starts to outweigh promises of stimulus.............Read more

US GDP growth could hit 3% by 2018 if Trump stimulus delivers

Ian Kernohan

27 January 2017

US GDP growth was estimated at 1.9% on an annualised basis in the final quarter of 2016, and just 1.6% for the calendar year.  However, this relatively slow expansion was still sufficient to drive.............Read more

Strong consumer activity lifts UK GDP

Ian Kernohan

26 January 2017

Far from plunging into recession after the vote to leave the EU, the UK was actually the fastest growing G7 economy in 2016. GDP grew by 0.6% quarter on quarter in the final three months of 2016, faster than.............Read more

No obvious impact on labour market from EU exit vote

Ian Kernohan

18 January 2017

Today's UK labour market reports show that employment fell by 9,000 in the three months to November 2016, however the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.8%, showing no obvious impact from the.............Read more

Beyond "Brexit means Brexit"

Ian Kernohan

17 January 2017

The Prime Minister has set out her objectives ahead of triggering Article 50.  The main theme of the speech was “Global Britain” - the UK now wants to trade in a wider world. The key points were as.............Read more

Trump press conference

Ian Kernohan

12 January 2017

Donald Trump has given his first press conference as President Elect.  The conference was called ostensibly to deal with questions surrounding his business interests, and came on the day where.............Read more

A new year sees greater momentum in the global economy

Ian Kernohan

11 January 2017

In recent weeks, there have been good signs that the global economy has enough momentum to break with the persistent “lacklustre growth/high deflation risk” narrative which has been.............Read more

US economy gets some mojo

Ian Kernohan

10 January 2017

One of our favourite domestic indicators for the US economy, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business survey, has just seen its steepest increase since 1980. Small companies.............Read more

Strange but true: 2016 was the best year for multi asset returns since 2009

Trevor Greetham

3 January 2017

Sterling-based investors have enjoyed the best year for multi asset returns since 2009, the initial bounce back from the financial crisis. A balanced multi asset fund would have returned something like.............Read more

Climbing the wall of worry

Trevor Greetham

16 December 2016

Everyone is fixated on the two big political shocks of Brexit and Trump but in many ways the most significant development in 2016 was China turning inflationary for the world after five years as a.............Read more

Bank of England sensitive to any economic slowdown next year

Ian Kernohan

15 December 2016

The Bank of England was not expected to change policy at this meeting, and their statement suggests that the balance of arguments favours keeping policy unchanged for the foreseeable future..............Read more

Fed hikes set to continue

Ian kernohan

15 December 2016

Yesterday's US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike was long expected, so there was no surprise when it came. Attention will now turn to the outlook for monetary policy in 2017. We do assume a sizeable.........Read more

ECB dovish taper

Ian Kernohan

8 December 2016

The European Central Bank (ECB) have extended their programme of Quantitative Easing (QE) purchases at a lower monthly rate from March next year, but for a longer time period than expected.........Read more

US payrolls

Ian Kernohan

2 December 2016

With a December hike in US interest rates fully priced into markets, the latest set of payrolls would have to have been extremely weak to impact expectations. In the event, the three month average of.........Read more

Trumpflation!

Trevor Greetham

29 November 2016

The markets had another political surprise with the election of Donald Trump as US President. There are major uncertainties but investors see the glass as half full with reflationary fiscal policies expected to.........Read more

Black Friday and the positive seasonals for stocks

Trevor Greetham

24 November 2016

The summer doldrums are over and US equity markets are making new highs in a move that we have been backing in the multi asset funds we manage.........Read more

Autumn Statement - Austerity Lite

Trevor Greetham 

23 November 2016

This is austerity-lite but the economy hasn't slowed yet and we wouldn't be surprised to see more meaningful stimulus sometime next year. Keeping the economy..........Read more

Autumn Statement far from UK version of Trumpflation

Ian Kernohan

23 November 2016

GDP growth forecasts were a tad higher than expected, at 1.4% for next year and 1.7% in 2018. However, looking beyond that, the Office for Budget Responsibility growth forecasts look very..........Read more

Trumpflation and other stories

Ian Kernohan 

23 November 2016

The election of Donald Trump as President is a major watershed event, not just for the US economy but for geopolitics in general. The market’s initial response has been to focus more on the prospect of..........Read more

Autumn statement should be going for growth

Trevor Greetham

21 November 2016

Now is the time to reset fiscal policy and the focus should be on boosting nominal growth to offset Brexit uncertainty rather than trying to deliver 'austerity-lite'..........Read more 

Markets and Trump

Ian Kernohan

16 November 2016

So far, risk assets have taken a “glass half full” stance on the Trump election victory: they quite like the fiscal stimulus idea and plans for less regulation in certain sectors. Markets are..........Read more

European politics a key risk factor in region's assets

Trevor Greetham

16 November 2016

Brexit and Trump reflect a populist movement against globalisation. Looser fiscal policy in Europe with transfers from country to country would be needed to offset discontent in countries where the one-size-fits-all..........Read more

Economic impact of US election

Ian Kernohan

9 November 2016

The election of such an apparently unpredictable character to be US president is a major surprise for markets, and comes ahead of a series of important European votes, starting with the Italian............Read more 

Trump Victory an eerie re-run of Brexit

Trevor Greetham

9 November 2016

People who lived through the UK Brexit referendum were treated to an eerie re-run last night as America elected Donald Trump president against the expectations of pollsters, bookmakers............Read more 

High Court ruling on Article 50

Ian Kernohan

4 Novemeber 2016

The High Court has ruled that the government cannot trigger Article 50 (A50) without the consent of Parliament. They did not define what type of consent would be needed and the government............Read more 

Fed on track to hike rates in December

Ian Kernohan 

4 November 2016

Overall this was a reasonably robust payrolls report, which should keep the US Federal Reserve on track to hike interest rates next month.  The key figure, the three month moving average of............Read more

Bank of England could move policy either way

Ian Kernohan

3 November 2016

With UK economic data, including the latest Purchasing Managers’ Indices, continuing to surprise on the upside, the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold today as we expected............Read more

Taking some risk off ahead of the US election

Ian Kernohan

2 November 2016

Although our base case assumption is a Clinton victory, we note that the chances of a Trump victory have risen to as much as 30% on some models. We would expect a significant market reaction in the event............Read more

Rising inflation creates positive backdrop for stocks

Trevor Greetham

1 November 2016

Better than expected economic data in the UK has seen gilt yields rise back to pre-referendum levels. However, rising government bond yields are not a UK-specific phenomenon............Read more

Change of view on Bank of England

Ian Kernohan

27 October 2016

Although our November Bank of England (BoE) rate cut call was based more on a reading of prospects for the UK economy in 2017 than it was on the Q3 GDP, it wasn’t totally insensitive. Despite the............Read more

Sluggish eurozone growth could extend QE next year

Ian Kernohan

20 October 2016

There was only a small chance that Mr Draghi would discuss an extension of QE today, following the recent reports that ECB had begun to consider a taper of the programme............Read more

Politics takes centre stage

Ian Kernohan

14 October 2016

Sterling volatility has been a dominant theme in recent weeks. More than three months on from the Brexit vote, markets have finally woken up to the prospect that the UK is actually going to leave the EU, and is unlikely to compromise............Read more

Sterling lacking support from latest news on UK fiscal stance

Trevor Greetham

11 October 2016

It’s been a confusing week. Last Wednesday, George Freeman, the Conservative MP who chairs the No. 10 policy board, suggested that the Chancellor would shift policy away from quantitative easing...............Read more

Plenty to play for ahead of a potential US rate hike in December

Ian Kernohan

7 October 2016

The labour market data has the greatest influence on the Fed’s decision making and this data continues to point towards a hike in interest rates by the end of the year...............Read more

Brexit chickens come home for sterling

Ian Kernohan

7 October 2016

It's been a difficult week for sterling. The three months since the referendum vote were a sort of limbo, with little detail on the government’s position re the trade-off between soft and hard Brexit...............Read more

Theresa May's Hard Brexit errs on the side of over-doing stimulus

Trevor Greetham

3 October 2016

The Prime Minister’s new mantra can now be read as 'Brexit is Hard Brexit and we’re going to err on the side of over-doing stimulus'..............Read more

UK GDP growth revised up

Ian Kernohan

30 September 2016

UK GDP growth in Q2 has been revised up to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, with support from consumption and investment offset by weakness in net trade.  The current account deficit remains very wide..........Read more

Watching the Fed has become rather like waiting for Godot

Trevor Greetham

22 September 2016

Fed watching has become rather like Waiting for Godot. The low unemployment rate makes the Fed nervous but it never seems the right time to raise interest rates...........Read more

Pinch of salt needed but Fed December hike still likely

Ian Kernohan

22 September2016

The Fed has set out their stall for a December hike, while at the same time suggesting a shallower path for further hikes in 2017. It is best to take the so called dot plot projection with a large pinch of salt...............Read more 

Bank of Japan surprises with 'helicopter money in all but name'

Trevor Greetham

21 September 2016

The Bank of Japan's review of monetary policy is helicopter money in all but name and it is supportive of our overweight stance in Japanese equities.........Read more

Bank of Japan announcement

Ian Kernohan

21 September 2016

The Bank of Japan not cut interest rates or increase amount of JGB purchases, as some commentators had expected, but it did surprise the market by adopting a cap for 10 year JGB yields, and declared an intention to.............Read more

Fed policy not supportive of extended bull market in gold

Trevor Greetham

19 September 2016

The gold price is up 25% year to date in dollar terms and 40% if measured in the devalued pound (chart 1). A constructive view on the US and UK economies means we don’t see this as the start of a long bull market..............Read more

Have Trump's economic forecasts crossed the line into make believe?

Trevor Greetham

16 September 2016

In a keynote speech last night at the Economic Club of New York, US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump unveiled extremely ambitious plans for the economy. He proposed broad brush tax and deregulation..............Read more

Expect another rate cut in November

Ian Kernohan

15 September 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee had already cast doubt on the large fall in the July PMIs, so the economy’s bounce back in August should not have come as a surprise to them.  There is enough evidence to suggest that...............Read more

Philip Hammond should realise the low in gilt yields is here

Trevor Greetham

14 September 2016

The downward shift in UK government bond yields of all maturities since the EU referendum makes sense given aggressive easing by the Bank of England, but there is almost no value left in long-dated gilts.............Read more

Seasonal rise in volatility likely to create buying opportunity

Trevor Greetham

12 September 2016

Stocks have sold off over the last couple of days on concern that the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates at its 21 September meeting, despite recent weakness in US business confidence. This may.........Read more  

'Brexit' boost to multi asset returns

Trevor Greetham

9 September 2016

Multi asset returns have been very strong since the UK referendum with stocks and bonds surging to new highs on the view that monetary policy will remain looser for longer. We expect the steady if.........Read more 

UK recession avoided, but 'Brexit' risks ahead

Ian Kernohan

8 September 2016

Markets have reassessed the immediate economic impact of the Brexit Referendum result. The most recent Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys suggest that the UK economy has not slipped into.........Read more

Eurozone has dodged 'Brexit' bullet so far

Ian Kernohan

8 September 2016

There was no great excitement in today's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, interest rates, quantitative easing purchases and the March 2017 timetable remain as before. Although growth forecasts.........Read more 

Bank of England could cut rates again this year

Ian Kernohan

7 September 2016

Mr Carney appeared very comfortable with the actions the Bank of England took last month as he appeared at the select committee today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had already cast doubt on the large fall in.........Read more

ISM Services index disappoints

Ian Kernohan

6 September 2016

The latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services release will no doubt push down the market implied probability of a September Fed hike. This could in turn mean they won’t hike, wanting to avoid shocking the market.........Read more

Fed running out of time to shift expectations for a September rate hike

Ian Kernohan

2 September 2016

While the latest US labour market report was reasonably solid, and certainly did not give any indication of economic slowdown,  an even stronger report was needed to make a September..........Read more

PMIs appear to have over reacted to 'Brexit'

Ian Kernohan

1 September 2016

UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) manufacturing survey data has bounced back in August from a very weak July reading. The manufacturing sector accounts for quite a small share of GDP and should..........Read more

Fed rethink?

Ian kernohan

16 August 2016

A new paper by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, has fed into a discussion about a possible de facto or de jure increase in the US Federal Reserve's (Fed's) inflation..........Read more

'Brexit' update

Ian Kernohan

12 August 2016

In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote on June 23, we took the view that this event did not represent a systemic shock to the global economy, with any economic fallout largely confined to the UK..........Read more

Summary of today's BoE action

Ian Kernohan

4 August 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to cut the Bank of England (BoE) base rate to 0.25%, with the majority indicating that a further cut is likely later this year.  There was a majority decision to increase..........Read more

BoE pessimistic on outlook for UK economy, rates could fall further

Ian Kernohan

4 August 2016

There is very limited evidence to date about the impact of the ‘Brexit’ vote on the UK economy, however, by acting now the Bank of England (BoE) have signalled that they had best err on the side of caution, rather..........Read more

Investor sentiment is euphoric

Trevor Greetham

25 July 2016

Our composite investor sentiment indicator has reached its most euphoric reading in 18 months after global equities responded to expectations of easier policy as a result of the UK's ‘Brexit’ vote..........Read more

UK moves towards recession; expect further sterling weakness

Trevor Greetham

22 July 2016

Today saw a record one month drop in the UK Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) and a fall in manufacturing confidence to levels that suggest the UK economy is contracting at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis in 2009..........Read more 

ECB waits for Brexit dust to settle

Ian Kernohan

21 July 2016

While we think ‘Brexit’ uncertainty is mainly an issue for the UK economy, there is also bound to be some knock-on impact on the eurozone. With post-Brexit evidence still patchy, we think the European.............Read more

Are markets getting complacent about risk?

Trevor Greetham

18 July 2016

RLAM’s investor sentiment indicator for global equities has moved into euphoric territory on the back of expectations for looser policy in response to the UK’s vote to leave the EU – the U.S. Federal Reserve is now.............Read more

Rates on hold in July

Trevor Greetham

14 July 2016

The knee jerk rise in the pound looks like a selling opportunity. Economic data is already coming in weak and we are going to see forceful action from the Bank of England in August. Rising.............Read more

May's honeymoon to continue - for now

Trevor Greetham

14 July 2016

New Prime Minister Theresa May has appointed senior voices from the Vote Leave camp to important roles in her first cabinet with, David Davies minister for Brexit negotiations, Liam Fox in charge of trade deals.............Read more

Carney signals Summer rate cut

Ian Kernohan

1 July 2016

It will take some weeks to assess any Brexit impact on the UK economy. Today’s manufacturing PMI survey was a little stronger, though the survey was taken before the result of the referendum was known.............Read more

Post Brexit changes to economic base case

Ian Kernohan

28 June 2016

Post Brexit, we have made some changes to our economic base case. The key assumption is that the impact of Brexit is centred on the UK and eurozone economies, rather than a trigger for a global systemic event..............Read more

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe - and always will be

Trevor Greetham

27 June 2016

Boris Johnson sheds some light on how he sees Brexit in an article in today's Daily Telegraph. Citing the fact the vote was close and thus not a mandate for total disengagement from Europe, he argues for..............Read more

Comment on UK's vote for Brexit

Trevor Greetham

24 June 2016

The outcome of the referendum is a major shock to stock markets and sterling which were trading positively as the Vote Leave camp lost its lead in the polls..............Read more

Brexit won't be the end of politicial risk for investors

Trevor Greetham

22 June 2016

A late resurgence in support for the remain camp in the UK’s referendum on its future relationship with the European Union has been greeted positively by markets.............Read more

Bank to wait for referendum uncertainty to clear

Ian Kernohan

16 June 2016

There was zero chance that the BOE would change policy today, but it will be interesting to see how they respond to the result of next week's EU referendum. While inflation remains well below target, most..............Read more

Fed keeps options open for July

Ian Kernohan

16 June 2016

The US Federal Reserve have noted the recent soft payrolls report, while acknowledging that growth in economic activity................Read more

Housing weakness temporary; gilt buyers beware

Trevor Greetham

9 June 2016

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) housing market survey for May showed a sharp deterioration. The New Buyer Enquiries balance is at its lowest ebb since the financial crisis, suggesting that nationwide.............Read more

Yellen keeps options open on rate hike

Ian Kernohan

7 June 2016

In the wake of last month's weaker payroll data, Janet Yellen has given a wide ranging speech on the outlook for the US economy.  Her comment that "one should never.............Read more

Economic Times June 2016

Ian Kernohan

3 June 2016

Even before the latest US Labor Market Report, a June US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike was unlikely, given the approaching Brexit referendum.  The May payroll report removes any lingering uncertainty.  The three month moving............Read more

US Federal Reserve minutes open up June

Ian Kernohan

19 May 2016

The Fed have succeeded in shifting overly dovish market expectations, in order to keep open next month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting............Read more

Backing the bookies on Brexit

Trevor Greetham

16 May 2016

Opinion polls suggest the 23 June EU Referendum is too close to call with the Remain and Leave camps still neck and neck with less than six weeks to go and the political rhetoric getting more and more extreme..............Read more

Economic Times May 2016

Ian Kernohan

5 May 2016

Markets are virtually certain that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not hike in June, with the probability of a move priced at just 10%. While the Fed did signal a less aggressive path to their...............Read more

Looking to buy dips over the summer

Trevor Greetham

3 May 2016

Disappointment over the lack of easing by the Bank of Japan ended April on a sour note and we have just entered May, the month when the seasonality effect for stocks turns negative. The world equity markets have returned an average...............Read more  

Super strong China data

Trevor Greetham

15 April 2016

Last summer's Chinese stock market collapse has triggered two rounds of unexpected currency devaluation that rattled global investor sentiment. This morning we learned...............Read more

Overweight Japan on dollar strength to come

Trevor Greetham

14 April 2016

The US dollar has weakened in recent months as the deflationary impact of China led the market consensus to move from four US interest rate hikes to...............Read more

Economic Times April 2016

Ian Kernohan

1 April 2016


The UK’s current account deficit has widened significantly, and now stands at 7% of GDP. The current account records international flows of payments to and from UK residents, generated mainly by trade and the ownership of assets. To fund the deficit, UK residents can sell some of their
The UK’s current account deficit has widened significantly, and now stands at 7% of GDP. The current account records international flows of payments to and from UK residents, generated mainly by trade and...............Read more

Devil of fiscal tightening is in the detail

Ian Kernohan

16 March 2016

Given the downgrade to nominal GDP since the Autumn Statement in November, and some more recent signs of global economic weakness, it was always likely that the OBR would reduce their GDP growth forecasts...............Read more

Economic Times March 2016

Ian Kernohan

14 March 2016

The most recent estimates of UK GDP showed that the economy grew by 0.5% in Q4 2015 - a little faster than in the previous quarter.  Data is still subject to revision, and it...........Read more 

ECB takes further action

Ian Kernohan

10 March 2016

Having been stung in December by disappointing market expectations, it was important that Mr Draghi did not make the same mistake twice. Since then...........Read more 

Another welcome delay in Japan's 2017 sales tax hike?

Trvor Greetham

3 March 2016

Japanese Prime Minister Abe needs to decide soon whether to go ahead with the consumption tax hike from 8% to 10% scheduled for April 2017. This has already been delayed...........Read more

The UK policy puzzle and sterling

Trevor Greetham

1 March 2016

Policy makers the world over are tabling additional stimulus to offset the deflationary impact of the slowdown in China. G20 ministers meeting at the weekend agreed.............Read more

Impact of "Brexit" on sterling

Ian Kernohan

25 February 2016

A free floating sterling is a very important safety valve for the UK economy, allowing it to adjust to a change in circumstances. Economies within fixed............Read more

Comment on the minutes of the latest US Federal Reserve meeting

Ian Kernohan

17 February 2016

The minutes suggest that many on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) share Yellen's view that recent market turbulence adds to downside risks for............Read more

Policy maker panic under way

Trevor Greetham

12 February 2016

When policy makers start to panic, markets can stop panicking. We are seeing the first signs of policy maker panic with Prime Minister Abe holding an............Read more 

A period of dollar weakness?

Trevor Greetham

4 February 2016

The weak services Purchasing Managers Index in the US yesterday calls into question our view that the consumer is benefitting from falling energy prices, at least in the short term............Read more

Economic Times February 2016

Ian Kernohan

2 February 2016

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates in mid-December, initially without much market reaction.  The backdrop to............Read more 

Bank of Japan eases policy

Trevor Greetham

29 January 2016

Market stress is again triggering policy ease by the world's largest central banks, in an echo of the events of autumn last year............Read more

US recession fears look overdone

Ian Kernohan

18 January 2016

Big falls in share prices and some softer economic data have added to existing concerns about China and the state of the oil markets, leading to a spike in US recession talk.  While such talk seems to be...........Read more 

Weak start of the year creates a buying opportunity for stocks

Trevor Greetham

13 January 2016

Stock markets have started the year badly on renewed concerns around China. As result, our composite sentiment indicator has plunged...........Read more

Coming to terms with China's new currency arrangements

Ian Kernohan

7 January 2016

We believe the lifting of share sales restrictions and currency depreciation were the major triggers for the New Year fall in China’s equity market.  Share sale restrictions have now been re-imposed, in an attempt.............Read more 

Economic Times January 2016

Ian Kernohan

6 January 2016

Looking ahead over the next year, there are a number of key issues facing global markets. Some of these are perennial themes, such as the likely direction of US........Read more

2015 review and outlook

Trevor Greetham

6 January 2016

Stock and bond markets went sideways in 2015 but there were some major internal divergences in an eventful year, which saw the US Federal Reserve.......Read more

Day one weakness not due to fundamentals

Trevor Greetham

5 January 2016

Market action on the first trading day of the year had very little to do with fundamentals. The Chinese stock market closed limit down on fears that institutions were about to unload holdings as the........Read more

Cheaper oil - 12 months on

Ian Kernohan

18 December 2015

12 months on from the major slide in the price of oil, and with the price falling again in recent weeks, it seems a good time to take stock of the impact on the global economy and markets........Read more

Buying the dip

Trevor Greetham

15 December 2015

We are taking advantage of recent market weakness to add to equity overweights in the multi asset funds we manage........Read more

Potential implications of a Fed rate rise

Trevor Greetham

14 December 2015


With US stocks back to record highs, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to embark on a monetary tightening cycle for the first time since 2004........Read more

ECB extends QE; market expected more

Ian Kernohan

3 December 2015

Expectations were for further easing, and the ECB did not disappoint on the cut to the deposit rate, however market reaction suggests that investors also expected the monthly purchase amount to rise..........Read more

Lone Hiker: US rate rise implications

Trevor Greetham

3 December 2015

Stock markets have recovered and the US Federal Reserve is set to embark on a series of interest rate rises for the first time in a decade. We review three scenarios.....Read more

Economic Times December 2015

Ian Kernohan

30 November 2015

The Autumn Statement is perhaps more interesting from a political than an economic point of view.  On the economics, the big picture is scarcely changed from..............Read more 

A slowing China is good for equities

Trevor Greetham

18 November 2015

In a video from ft.com Trevor Greetham discusses how the slowdown in Chinese growth could be a boost for equities..............Read more

Emerging economies and commodities pressured as Fed looks to hike in December

Trevor Greetham

13 November 2015

We are staying positive equities in the multi asset funds we manage but moving back to the deeper underweight in the UK, emerging markets and..................Read more

Economic Times November 2015

Ian Kernohan

30 October 2015

Until the September payroll print, the consensus held that while the US domestic economic situation was strong enough to justify a hike in US interest rates before..................Read more

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

Ian Kernohan

29 October 2015

At yesterday's FOMC meeting, the option of a December rate hike was kept open. This is not a big surprise in itself, but the tone of statement was perhaps..................Read more

Signs of stabilisation

Ian Kernohan

26 October 2015

Following the August market sell-off, some signs of stabilisation in the global economic data, particularly the PMI surveys, further stimulus from central banks, and.................Read more

China a little better than expected, a lot better than feared

Trevor Greetham 

19 October 2015

The big stock market slide this summer was caused by concerns that China's surprise currency devaluation was a response to something nasty.................Read more

Economic Times

Ian Kernohan 

30 September 2015

The recent decision by the Fed not to raise rates, while dropping broad hints that they will raise rates soon has led to much frustration in markets..................Read more

What will turn the equity market?

Trevor Greetham 

29 September 2015

With sentiment still extremely depressed, like many people we are having a team discussion on possible catalysts for an equity rebound................Read more

Fed on hold, bullish for equities

Trevor Greetham 

18 September 2015

The Federal Reserve left rates on hold and is explicitly monitoring developments abroad and in financial markets, implying a lower path for interest rates than would have been the case without China’s devaluation and the stock market slide...............Read more

Equity market sell off

Trevor Greetham 

24 August 2015

China's stock market slide and some weaker manufacturing data have sparked a sharp sell off in equity markets, Our composite investor sentiment indicator has signalled one of the strongest contrarian buy.............Read more

Japan GDP figures

Ian Kernohan 

17 August 2015

The first estimate of Japan GDP showed a fall in Q2, after a strong rise in Q1. Unlike 2014, when VAT was hiked, there appears to be no particular catalyst for the decline, although Japan does have a history of volatile............Read more

Are investors over-reaching for income as the hunt for yield contnues?

Trevor Greetham 

13 August 2015

The low interest rates and annuity rates of recent years have triggered the launch of a proliferation of multi-asset income funds investing, often somewhat indiscriminately, in any asset class............Read more

Has China started a devaluation strategy?

Trevor Greetham 

11 August 2015

The People's Bank of China has devalued the RMB rate by 1.9%, which doesn’t sound like much but it’s the largest one day move in China’s closely managed currency since a similarly sized upward...........Read more

Bank of England Announcements

Ian Kernohan 

6 August 2015

The minutes suggest that the MPC remains divided on the medium-term outlook for inflation, with one member voting for a rate hike. There had been widespread expectations that two or more members would..........Read more

UK Growth Figures

Ian Kernohan 

28 July 2015

UK GDP grew by 0.7%* in the second quarter. Early estimates of GDP are often subject to revision at a later date and I suspect the number will be revised up. However, this data provides the Bank of England..........Read more

Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes

Ian Kernohan 

22 July 2015

The latest MPC minutes showed a unanimous decision to keep interest rates on hold, with recent international developments playing a key role in the discussion. Assuming a reduction in uncertainty surrounding..........Read more

All that glitters...

Trevor Greetham

21 July 2015

The gold price is making new 5 year lows but we expect weakness to persist. Gold tends to do well when the dollar is weak, real interest rates are negative and there are fears about systemic..........Read more

China's better than expected GDP figures

Trevor Greetham and Ian Kernohan

15 July 2015

GDP growth stabilised at 7% year-on-year in Q2, a little stronger than consensus expectations. The financial sector looks to have been a key driver, given the jump in tertiary sector activity. Retail sales..........Read more

Greece bailout deal

Trevor Greetham

14 July 2015

Subject to a vote in Parliament, the agreement between Greece and its creditors should take the heat out of the situation, at least in the short term. A new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) will instigate negotiations.........Read more

China's equity bust is good news for global markets

Trevor Greetham

13 July 2015

Here's my FT Markets Insight column on the website today. I argue that a weak China is good news for the world as it means lower commodity prices and relatively low interest rates. When people come to........Read more

Economic Times - July 2015

Ian Kernohan

13 July 2015

The recent revisions to UK GDP remind us yet again that, despite all the media brouhaha, when a “shocking” GDP number is released, we ought to treat early estimates of this series with some scepticism. A combination of.........Read more

Sell in May maybe, but buy the dips

Trevor Greetham

13 July 2015

We used stress surrounding Greece’s standoff with its creditors and the China stock market slide to add to equity overweights in the multi asset funds.......Read more

UK Summer Budget

Ian Kernohan

8 July 2015

The most important aspect of this Budget is its political context: the first majority Conservative government for two decades. This enabled Mr Osborne.....Read more

Update on Greek euro exit risk

Trevor Greetham

6 July 2015

Voters in Greece have rejected the terms of the eurozone bailout by a 61/39 margin in a surprise for the markets. As with the UK general election, opinion......Read more

'Oxi' day for Greece

Trevor Greetham

6 July 2015

The Greek people are saying a resounding 'No' to further austerity by a margin of 61% to 39% with three fifths of the votes counted. As with the UK general......Read more

Greece referendum

Trevor Greetham

29 June 2015

Expect market volatility surrounding Greece to continue and intensify this next week with European equities, peripheral sovereign bonds and the euro itself.....Read more

ECB Greece negotiations

Trevor Greetham

18 June 2015

The negotiations seem to be coming to a head this week. Market stress could get worse before it gets better but a resolution of any kind is likely to lead to a bounce.....Read more

Economic Times - June 2015

Ian Kernohan

10 June 2015

Ahead of the recent UK election, there was a real risk that political uncertainty would begin to impact on the behaviour of firms and households.....Read more

Economic times - May 2015

Ian Kernohan

10 May 2015

Having suggested last month that the main PMI surveys pointed to somewhat stronger GDP growth in Q1, the preliminary estimate of UK GDP suggested.....Read more

Reflections on the general election

Trevor Greetham

8 May 2015

Opinion polls suggested that this would be one of the closest UK general election contests in recent memory but in the event the Conservative.....Read more

China in bubble territory?

Trevor Greetham

20 April 2015

China’s stock market is super hot despite a weakening economy and property market. I would put this down to the fact the People’s Bank of China.....Read more

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